Rising imports a tough nut to crack for Kashmiri walnut industry

Tariff removal for Californian walnut and a spike in Chilean exports hit local walnut growers and traders, as the imported items are more appealing due to their bigger size, whiter kernel and lower prices Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir: Getting out of the Rs 4 lakh debt accumulated through walnut trading was not easy for Abdul Majeed Itoo (65). He had to sell his two kanals (0.25 acres) of land for that in 2022, which he describes as the most difficult phase of his life.Itoo belongs to Shangus in Anantnag, a district that tops in walnut cultivation in Kashmir region. He began walnut cultivation on his 10 kanal (around two acres) plot in 1981 and started buying walnuts from other small farmers in 1989. His produce would fetch him around Rs 2 lakh annually, while he would trade in walnuts worth another Rs 2 lakh by making purchases from small farmers.An approximately 80-year-old walnut tree stands leafless after winter shedding in Shangus, Anantnag (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters) “In 1989, walnuts fetched Rs 500 per mann (40 kg),” he said, noting it was equivalent to Rs 20,000 of today. “By 2016, prices skyrocketed to Rs 12,000 per mann.”Everything was going well until the prices collapsed to Rs 5,000-7,000 per mann in 2018. That year, Itoo had bought walnuts based on previous year’s rates, expecting a profit of Rs 2,000 per mann. Instead, prices crashed further. “After adding labour, packing, transport and other charges, I suffered a massive loss. I fell into debt and was unable to pay small farmers, labourers and shopkeepers,” he said.Noor Ahmed Ganie from Anantnag has been into walnut farming and trading for 18 years, but he is considering quitting now. "I owe Rs 50,000 to farmers... The same walnut that I sold for Rs 250 per kg in 2019 now sells for 90," he lamented. His 15 trees once yielded more than Rs 1 lakh, and trading brought in Rs 5 to 6 lakh, with a Rs 2 lakh profit. Now, he barely generates a revenue of Rs 2 to 3 lakh from all the walnuts. "We barely get the amount of labour we put in," he said. Labour usually costs half the amount with which the crop is bought. For example, if the crop is bought at Rs 1 lakh, it will take a farmer Rs 50,000 more to make the crop market-ready.Ghulam Nabi (65) from Bijbehara collects walnuts from households and sells them in Jammu. “I now sell the same quantity of walnuts for nearly half the price compared to a few years ago,” said Nabi, who owns only one walnut tree, but used to purchase walnuts worth lakhs from small farmers and households, earning a profit of Rs 3 to 4 lakh annually. After accounting for expenses, his earnings have now dropped to just Rs 1 lakh per year.(Above)Ghulam Nabi displays Kashmiri walnuts. (Below) A jar filled with Californian walnuts at Faisal Mir's Ganie Dryfruits in Delhi (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)Hybrid influxJammu and Kashmir produces over 95% of India’s walnuts. Chemical use is minimal as climate variations have little impact on walnut production here. Mostly urea is used once in three to four years. "Walnuts can grow even in Ramban and Poonch, where temperatures reach 40°C. Since Kashmir’s extremes are 36-38°C, the produce remains unaffected,” explained Dr Imtiyaz Ahmad Lone, Professor, Department of Horticulture, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology-Kashmir (SKUAST-K).Even if farmers want to use chemicals, the cost would be too high due to the towering size of walnut trees. "Unlike California’s smaller hybrids, treating 30 m trees with 18 m canopies is nearly impossible," said Lone.Despite being one of the finest varieties, Kashmiri walnuts struggle to compete in the market due to imports from California, China and Chile. Farmers across the valley claim that the increasing market share of imported walnuts has driven down the prices of Kashmiri walnuts. "Imported walnuts are hybrids — they are larger in size, more visually appealing and have a whiter kernel compared to Kashmiri walnuts," said Bahadur Khan, president, Kashmir Dry Fruit Association, explaining why there was a lesser demand and a resultant price drop. However, in terms of taste and nutritional value, the imports fall far short. Dr Thameed Aijaz, Assistant Professor, Department of Food Technology, Islamic University of Science and Technology, Awantipora, told 101Reporters that Kashmiri walnuts have a much higher oil content. “This makes them a healthier option than hybrid varieties."A 2017 study titled Kashmir walnuts: study on fatty acid composition and antioxidant activity analysed Kashmiri walnuts using gas chromatography. It found polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) to be the most abundant — 73.89% in the black variety and 65.74% in the brown variety. Monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) were higher in the brown variety (26.21%) than in the black (18.17%). The brown variety also showed stronger antioxidant activity. The study concluded that Kashmiri walnuts, rich in MUFA, PUFA and antioxidants, are beneficial for heart health and superior to hybrid varieties such as Californian and Chilean walnuts.Khan pointed out that buyers in metro cities and other places prioritise appearance over quality, focusing on the size and colour of the walnuts rather than their taste or nutritional benefits. “The smaller size and faded colour of Kashmiri walnuts definitely put them at a disadvantage against the imported varieties,” he stated. Acknowledging this, Faisal Mir (28), the owner of Ganie Dry Fruits in Batla House, Delhi, said most people are unable to differentiate between imported and Kashmiri walnuts. “Customers prefer Californian or Chilean walnuts over Kashmiri ones, which are also more expensive,” he said.Ghulam Nabi checks the quality of walnuts he purchases from a household in Anantnag before selling them to a walnut dealer (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)The curse of importsDuring the 2022-23 marketing year, Turkey, India and Italy emerged as the top importers for Chilean walnuts. The Chilean walnut export industry has heavily focused its marketing efforts on expanding in India, resulting in a 108% increase in exports to India. India has now become Chile’s largest market for in-shell walnuts, overtaking Turkey. The trade value rose to $125.48 million, up from $64.28 million between 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, a sharp 95.2% increase. Similarly, the trade value of Californian walnuts after tariff removal rose from 1,496 metric tonne in January 2023 to 3,538 metric tonne in January 2024. This has not only reduced the demand for Kashmiri walnuts, but has also caused significant losses for Kashmiri traders, forcing many to leave the profession.According to walnut export data, India exported 638.07 metric tonne walnuts to the world for Rs 20.02 crore during 2023-24, to Netherlands, the UK, the Middle East, etc. This export is marginal compared to India's total walnut production and the volume of imports.Figures available with Jammu and Kashmir Horticulture Department reveal that walnut production in Kashmir reduced to 1,80,973 MT in 2019-2020 compared to 1,95,066 MT in 2018-2019. Stressing the need to increase tariffs on foreign walnut imports to safeguard Kashmir’s rural economy, Dr Imtiyaz Wani, Assistant Professor, Department of Horticulture, SKUAST-K, and author of Walnut production technology under Kashmir conditions, highlighted that a large number of farmers in the rural belts rely on walnut farming for additional income.As per the department’s data for 2021, walnut cultivation spanned 95,601 hectares, accounting for 85.05% of the total area under walnut farming in India. Of this, 56,721 hectares were in the Kashmir region. Anantnag district cultivates walnut in 16,524 hectares, followed by Budgam with 14,524 hectares and Pulwama with 10,918 hectares. In the Jammu region, Poonch district has the largest area under walnut cultivation at 8,306 hectares, followed by Doda with 6,616 hectares. In terms of productivity, Baramulla district in Kashmir records the highest yield at 44,98,863 tonnes per hectare, followed by Kulgam at 3,98,693 tonnes per hectare. In Jammu, Doda district leads with 16,63,525 tonnes per hectare, followed by Reasi at 16,47,861 tonnes per hectare.  Under the Jammu and Kashmir Preservation of Specified Trees Act, 1969, a walnut tree can neither be felled nor pruned, even if it stands on private land, without permission from the revenue department. This special status is accorded mainly to protect the walnut economy, yet the dropping demand has made farmers cut down the trees with or without permission. Environmental lawyer Nadeem Qadri emphasised that walnut trees are a cornerstone of the rural economy, yet development is wreaking havoc on the rural landscape and the cultural significance tied to these trees. He criticised officials for their lack of seriousness in conservation efforts, stating, “Officers are more eager to grant permissions for pruning or cutting trees rather than showing any real commitment to protecting these specific trees.”  Wani suggested that the government should introduce support measures for walnut farmers, besides regulating imports.  Kashmiri walnuts with a dark-hued shell displayed at Faisal Mir's Ganie Dryfruits in Delhi (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)GST woes, GI tag demand  As if low-tariff imports were not enough, walnuts were placed under 12% tax slab during the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation in 2017. Following strong protests from growers, it was later reduced to 5%. However, many growers and traders remain dissatisfied, criticising the tax and demanding its complete removal.“We ran from pillar to post urging them to reduce GST, but no one listened to us,” lamented Khan. They met horticulture department officials, government officials, local politicians and advisors of LG, but their pleas went unheard. With increasing imports and intense competition, farmers and experts believe that securing a Geographical Indication (GI) tag is the only way to save the Kashmiri walnut industry. Similar to Kashmiri saffron, they argue that a GI tag for walnuts could restore their value.Lone elaborated on the SKUAST-K’s efforts to bring GI tag to Kashmiri walnuts. “This will revive demand and serve as an effective marketing strategy. Right now, it is difficult for an average consumer to distinguish between hybrid and Kashmiri varieties,” he said.Citing an example to show why GI tag mattered, Mir said that his customers who preferred imported walnut over Kashmiri ones, however often chose Kashmiri saffron over Iranian or Afghani saffron. “Even though these imported saffron might look more appealing, the GI tag on Kashmiri saffron boosted its demand,” he remarked.Wani also emphasised the need for proper infrastructure to support the industry. “We still rely on manual labour to separate the kernel from the shell, but there are machines available to do this work in minutes, which otherwise takes days. Adopting such machines can significantly reduce production costs and boost farmers’ profits,” he said.  He further highlighted the importance of grading machines, which sort walnuts based on size. “In Kashmir, we do not usually grade walnuts; instead, we mix them regardless of size. Grading machines can help filter and organise walnuts by size, making it easier to manage and market them effectively,” Wani added.  However, farmers like Itoo believe that such machines are costly and can be afforded only if the government provides subsidies.This story was produced as a part of NCNF Media Fellowship on Agroecology. Cover Photo - Faisal Mir weighs Californian walnuts for a customer at his dry fruit store (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)

Kashmir's haakh is in urgent need of a climate change hack

Highly nutritious and once affordable to all, collard greens are vanishing from kitchen gardens due to a bevy of pests and soaring temperaturesAnantnag, Jammu and Kashmir: "Yi gov kheer [This is too much],” frets Hajira Begum (60) of Achabal, when a vegetable vendor in Anantnag town tells her that haakh (collard greens) costs Rs 120 per kg. For the first time in decades, Hajira is buying haakh from the market.“We could cultivate it in plenty, but leaf disease affected our crop in the last three years. Last year, it was so severe that we had to pull out the plants and discard them,” she says, recalling how she would give away the greens to neighbours when haakh thrived in her household.The price of haakh, which used to cost between Rs 30 and 60 until 2022, is gradually increasing. According to Hajira, the vendors of Achabal have stopped selling this Kashmiri staple as “it is too costly now”.  A local report suggests that haakh production has dropped by 70% last year, causing supply shortage and pushing prices up. “Pests such as Brevicoryne brassicae (cabbage aphid), Plutella xylostella (diamondback moth) and Pieris brassicae (cabbage butterfly) are increasingly attacking haakh. They are highly responsive to elevated temperatures,” Dr Barkat Hussain, entomology expert and faculty member, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST)-Kashmir, tells 101Reporters.Brevicoryne brassicae transmits Turnip mosaic virus, which leads to leaf distortion and necrosis, especially on the lower leaves of turnip. The larvae of Plutella xylostella and Pieris brassicae feed on leaves, leading to small holes, skeletonised leaves and irregular patches. Severe defoliation reduces photosynthesis and causes stunting. Besides regular crop monitoring, Dr Hussain suggests use of biological controls (Bacillus thuringiensis, for example) and application of organic remedies such as neem oil or wood ash to reduce infestation.Kawadar haakh plant (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)Adverse factorsHaakh cannot be grown in the hottest months of June-July and the winter months of December-February. It grows better in cooler climates. "Snow plays a crucial role as it maintains soil moisture and regulates water levels in the land throughout the year," says Dr Hussain. According to him, the ideal temperature for growing haakh is from 0-30 degree Celsius.  Notably, Kashmir experienced one of its highest recorded temperatures in 25 years, when mercury touched 36 degree Celsius on July 28 last year. This favoured pest infestation in haakh.Once the seeds sprout and emerge above the ground 10 days after they are sown, the crop needs to be watered weekly. It usually takes two months to mature to the harvesting stage. Once the stem has produced all its leaves and the haakh season has ended, farmers replant the stem in March-April. It then develops flowers, which eventually transform into pea-like pods from which seeds are extracted in June-July and stored for further use.Haakh at the fruits and vegetables mandi in Anantnag, ready to be distributed to vendors for sale (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)Apart from pest attacks and rising temperature, unplanned urbanisation has also been gradually contributing to the haakh supply crisis. Lal Chowk, Natipora, Hyderpora, Rajbagh, Nowgam, Dangarpora, Dargah area, Chattabal, Batamaloo and Bemina were once hubs of haakh cultivation. Now they have turned into urban hotspots, witnessing significant changes in land use and land cover. Over the last 20 years, Srinagar has undergone the highest land use and land cover change from agricultural land to residential land, driven by rapid urbanisation, population growth, migration and tourism.A research article titled Spatiotemporal analysis of urban expansion in Srinagar city, Kashmir, reveals that Srinagar city's built-up area expanded from 34.53 km² in 2000 to 60.63 km² in 2020. The percentage of built-up area rose from 13.35% in 2000 to 23.44% in 2020, marking a 75.58% increase.Another threat to haakh is the preference among the youth for hyper-processed food items. “Kashmiris need to understand that they have to protect their local food supply chain by buying and consuming local food varieties,” says Dr Samina Raja, Director, Food Systems Planning and Healthy Communities Lab, School of Architecture and Planning, University at Buffalo (UB) Food Lab. She heads the collaborative research on haakh at SKUAST-K and UB.Houses emerge amidst lush green haakh fields in Srinagar, reflecting the impact of urbanization and the encroachment of construction on haakh fields (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)Fading organic gloryFayaz Ahmed (35) from Kawdara in Srinagar has been exclusively growing the Kawdara variety of haakh on his three kanal plot for a decade. “Pests used to attack the crop even in the initial days of my haakh cultivation, but not in a big way as we are seeing now. Until about three years ago, I used only natural fertilisers such as cow dung on the plants. Pesticides were never a part of our cultivation practices,” says Ahmed."Now, we have no choice but to rely on fertilisers and pesticides. If we do not, we will suffer huge losses," he laments, reflecting the challenges faced by farmers.“I have never ever seen such massive piles of haakh being destroyed," exclaims Kawdara-based Mohammad Sultan (60), who cultivates the Kawdara variety."Haakh is the only crop that I grow," states Abdul Sattar (70) from Khanyar in Srinagar. He has been dedicated to the crop ever since he dropped out of school at the age of 16. Despite the challenges that pests pose, Sattar remains committed to growing haakh. "I will keep growing the crop, but I think we will have to rely more on pesticides in the years to come," he says.  The household savings of both Ahmed and Sultan have diminished in recent years due to crop loss. "We used to save around Rs 1 lakh annually after covering all household expenses. However, in the last few years, we have barely managed to save anything," they say in unison.Farmers commonly use chlorpyrifos, dimethoate, cyhalothrin, cypermethrin, deltamethrin and chlorothalonil to keep pests at bay. "The increased attacks mean we have to use chemicals two to three times a year," admits Ahmed. These chemicals are primarily used between May and October, as haakh is more vulnerable to attacks during the warmer months. Interestingly, no official recommendations guide their use as there is a huge communication gap between haakh farmers and agriculture officials. Farmers have learnt about these chemicals through word of mouth and the internet.However, Chowdhary Iqbal, Director (Agriculture), Kashmir, claims otherwise. "Farmers have increasingly complained about pest infestations on collard leaves. The department is closely monitoring the situation... We will bring haakh under the Per Drop More Crop initiative to tackle water shortages in its cultivation. This would reduce the adverse effects of less snowfall and rising temperatures on haakh production,” Iqbal says.On the other hand, farmers claim that they have not received any training from the agriculture department to deal with the diseases. "The department officials never approached us, even though we have raised an alarm," claims Ahmed.Meanwhile, Dr Shakeel Wani, a resident doctor at Government Medical College, Srinagar, tells 101Reporters that the long-term use of pesticides poses serious health risks. "These include neurological issues [memory loss, tremors, seizures], hormonal disruptions, reproductive health problems, respiratory irritation and organ damage. Chlorothalonil, a possible carcinogen, may increase cancer risk. Pesticide residues in food can accumulate, leading to immune suppression, endocrine issues and chronic illnesses. Vulnerable groups like children, pregnant women and those with health conditions face higher risks. The chemicals also contaminate soil and water," he explains.Haakh displayed alongside other vegetables at Ghulam Nabi's shop (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)Poor man’s refugeAssi gassi haakh batti aasun (if we have haakh and rice, we will manage everything else) is a well-known Kashmiri proverb reflecting the integral role of green collards in local life. Regardless of how much or how little land a family owns, it is common to see a portion of the garden dedicated to haakh. Even in urban households with garden space, it is often the first crop to be planted.There is much diversity in the crop with prominent regional varieties being Khanyari, Kawdar, Dal and Heaz haakh, while there are seasonal ones like Wande and Monji haakh. Other distinctive varieties include Waste, Cxari, Dreat and Kanel haakh. There is much diversity in the dishes prepared as well. Cheti haakh (a mashed preparation), Cxati haakh (without any other vegetable), Mongi haakh (cooked with collard stems), Gaadi haakh (with fish), Wazwan haakh (made by traditional cooks for weddings), Nadir haakh (with lotus stem) and Pew haakh (made from small-sized collard leaves) show the versatility of haakh in Kashmiri cuisine. Pew Haakh, a specialty dish made from haakh with tender, small leaves (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)Zuhaib Rashid Bagroo, an Economics fellow at Ashoka University, tells 101Reporters how the decline in haakh production will affect the households, especially of the poor. “They either grew haakh on their own or bought it from the market at low prices until recently. When both these options are affected, households will see higher spending on food and reduced savings.” Bagroo adds that sustained high prices may force poor households to reduce consumption, which would influence their nutritional status. “This would not be a good sign at all,” he remarks.A 2022 research reveals that households cultivating haakh consume it four times a week, significantly contributing to food security in the region. Researchers at SKUAST-K have attested the leafy green’s remarkable health benefits. Their studies highlight that haakh is rich in vitamin E and C, and antioxidants that reduce cancer risk. This is noteworthy as Jammu and Kashmir has reported over 80,000 cancer cases in the last six years, with an annual increase of 2.7%. Dr Khalid Zaffar Masoodi, a Junior Scientist and Associate Professor at SKUAST-K, tells 101Reporters that 72 genotypes of haakh from different parts of Kashmir have been examined as part of the collaborative effort with UB. “The findings indicate that most genotypes are rich in antioxidants, making them effective against lung, prostate and skin cancer. We found that haakh is an excellent source of phenols and nutraceuticals as well,” he says.  “For generations, hakeems [herbal medicine practitioners] have been using it for treating uric acid-related problems and stomach issues,” informs historian and poet Zareef Ahmed Zareef, who writes poems extolling the vegetable under the UB’s public health campaign. The aim is to draw Kashmiris’ attention to the public health potential of haakh in ways that a scientific journal article cannot.This story was produced as a part of NCNF Media Fellowship on Agroecology.Edited by Rekha PulinnoliCover Photo - Fayaz Ahmed tending to his field, removing the damaged leaves from haakh plants (Photo - Mohammad Aatif Ammad Kanth, 101Reporters)

PDS queues longer, market price of rice higher as Kashmir ditches paddy for apple crop, urbanisation

While farmers turned paddy fields into orchards thinking ration rice would suffice, the cut in PDS supplies make people from all walks of life buy costly rice from private traders   Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir: On a chilly winter morning, Irshad Bhat waited outside the Public Distribution System (PDS) store at Shangus, located 75 km from Srinagar, in South Kashmir's Anantnag district to receive his family’s ration supplies. Living below the poverty line (BPL), his family of five is entitled to five kg of free rice per person. That is not much, according to Irshad, who is in his early forties. "Even my son aged 10 consumes a lot more than five kg of rice a month, so more rice needs to be purchased from private vendors at premium rates.”Irshad cultivated his rice fields earlier, but he turned them into apple orchards some years ago, falling for a trend that is on the rise in Kashmir. "I think I was mistaken, especially in light of the reduced number of subsidised meals.”As Jammu and Kashmir’s rice production declined, people began to depend much on PDS rice. But then came the blow. On December 23, 2022, the National Food Security Act and Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana were combined, which reduced ration entitlements. Until then, BPL families received 5 kg of rice per person each month at no cost, with the option to purchase an additional 5 kg for Rs 3 per kg. The extra rice option was removed after scheme integration. Similarly, families living above poverty line (APL) used to get 5 kg per person at Rs 15 per kg with an option to buy anextra 10 kg per family at a subsidised rate. Antyodaya families previously received 35 kg per family free of cost, with an additional 25 kg available to them at Rs 3 per kg. The extra rice option stands removed for both categories now.  It seems farmers could not properly assess the situation before they stopped cultivating paddy because they had never faced rice shortage before. PDS store managers had sufficient stocks as farmers did not depend on them for rice. So, the storekeepers could easily provide the extra available rice to the families that needed more.  The monthly quota of subsidised rice for Jammu and Kashmir was 44,431 tonnes in 2011, but it became 42,900 tonnes by 2023. Though the drop is not huge, the rising population and conversion of paddy fields increased the dependence on PDS. With limited supplies, people had no option but to buy rice from private dealers at high rates, which drove up the prices further and reduced purchasing power.The area under paddy cultivation has been constantly declining, with a government report estimating that Jammu and Kashmir lost 6,00,000 kanals (33,309 hectares) of paddy fields in the last decade. The area under rice cultivation has decreased from 3,04,500 hectares in 2015-16 to 2,68,800 hectares in 2022, raising concerns about increased dependence on rice from other states and potential shortages of the staple food in the Union Territory (UT) in future. The output of rice in UT fell from 8,18,100 tonnes in 2012–13 to 6,10,900 tonnes in 2013-14 and  to 4,92,900 tonnes in 2021–22.(Above) A woman from Shangus at the ration store (below) The once bustling Sarah's rice mill now vacant (Photo - Aatif Ammad, 101Reporters)Multiple jolts"Paddy land conversion is the result of decades of lawlessness, with successive governments neglecting the issue. There has been no intervention, allowing people to freely convert agricultural land into construction sites and apple orchards," stated Zareef Ahmad Zareef, a historian and author from Kashmir.Though there is a law to prevent conversion into construction plots, there are no specific regulations for using agricultural land for horticultural purposes. Since horticulture gives more benefits, farmers convert agricultural lands for horticultural use. The area under fruits crops has increased by 6,978 hectares from 3,34,719 hectares in 2020-21, recording a growth of 2.08%.Khiram-Sirhama in Anantnag district is an example for land conversion. Declared as the valley’s first apple model village in 2017, the area was known for rice production in the 90s. Now, agricultural fields are rapidly transforming from undulating rice fields to robust treelines.“This whole belt of Khiram-Sirhama used to cultivate rice only. Very few people produced apples. The scenario has changed in the last 20 years,” Riyaz Ali Mir (54), a farmer from Sirhama, told 101Reporters. Currently, apple trees cover more than 458.2 hectares of Sirhama's 786.7 hectares of land. “Since growing apples has more monetary benefits and needs less labour, those who have not yet turned their paddy fields into orchards will do so in the coming years,” he said.The study titled Land use land cover change in Kashmir Himalaya: Linking remote sensing with an indicator-based DPSIR approach focuses on the net difference in land use across 113 villages of South Kashmir from 1990 to 2017. The findings reveal a notable shift with over 5% reduction in farmland juxtaposed with a gain of 4.29% in horticulture.Climate change is a main reason for paddy land conversions. Kashmir saw floods in 2014 and severe droughts. Agricultural crops, mainly paddy, worth Rs 2,100 crore formed a major chunk of the total crop loss worth Rs 3,674 crore across 6.94 lakh acres. Hence, farmers have been scouting for climate-resilient options. Recent droughts have forced them to turn to maize in many parts of South Kashmir as it requires less water.Limited irrigation facilities are another reason for land conversion. "Due to climate change, farmers receive minimal or no water during crucial stages of paddy cultivation [May-June]. This compels them to leave the land fallow because delayed irrigation significantly reduces quantity and quality of rice produced," Professor Sheikh Tahir, an agronomist who teaches at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST)-Kashmir, told 101Reporters.Only 237 custom hiring centres have been established in UT until 2020. "Paddy farmers are inadequately equipped with modern technology and mechanisation,” said Dr Saad Ahmed, an agronomist and faculty member at SKUAST-Kashmir. This prompts a transition towards apple that requires less mechanisation but offers higher profits.Driven by increased migration, Kashmir has been experiencing urbanisation and increase in construction areas over the last two decades. Notably, the urban population has surged from 20% in 1980 to 30% in 2020, escalating land demand and rates and luring farmers into selling their paddy fields.(Above) The parched watercourse in Shangus, a vital irrigation lifeline for agriculture (Photo - Aatif Ammad, 101Reporters) (below) Rice fields of Shangus (Photo - Irfan Sofi)Ripple effectThe last time Jammu and Kashmir was growing enough rice for its own requirements was in the early 20th century. By the 21st century, the rice cultivated in UT met only 55% of the requirement. "In recent years, there has been a significant surge in demand. Previously, I seldom sold all the allotted rice in my store, but now all of it is sold within seven to 10 days," claimed Ashiq Bhat, the stock manager of PDS store at Shangus.“Having sold rice for 35 years, we typically witnessed medium to high demand during the wedding season, but now the demand remains consistently high year-round. At times, we even face supply shortages from dealers," said a prominent rice trader from Anantnag, wishing anonymity. “We got sufficient rice stock from Punjab and other states earlier. However, the pursuit of greater monetary benefits in agriculture has led these states to shift to other crops. This transition may reduce rice supply," explained Dr Tahir.A few years ago, rice prices used to start at Rs 22 to 24 per kg. However, traders now sell 30 kg of rice for a minimum of Rs 1,100 (Rs 36 per kg). "We barely make a 3% profit margin on selling price because we acquire rice from dealers at higher rates and need to adjust our selling prices," explained the trader.Mubashir Rashid Khan (42) of Paison operates a private library and belongs to an APL family. "I have no option but to spend less on other groceries. Otherwise, how are we supposed to buy rice from traders? Shopkeepers are selling it for Rs 40 per kg."  Hailing from a BPL family, Abdul Bhat (55) operates a shop and resides at Shangus. "I need around Rs 3,000 per month for rice purchase against the earlier Rs 1,200. This extra spending could have covered my son's educational expenses otherwise," he says, adding that the government should increase PDS rice quantity.  A labourer who falls under the Antyodaya category, Tariq Ahmed* (45) resides at Chittergul. There are seven members in his family, so 35 kg is insufficient. "I earn only Rs 10,000 a month. I spend an extra Rs 1,500 on rice these days. Previously, a significant portion of my income was allocated for my children's education, but I had to cut back on those expenses. I am forced to reduce spending in all other areas."For some others, savings have been impacted. "I used to save a good portion of my salary earlier, but the reduction of subsidised rice has affected it," said Mushtaq Bhat (55), a government employee in Anantnag town. "The additional rice expenses are met from the portion we usually save. We cannot compromise on other essentials," reasoned Farooq Shigan (47), a restaurant owner from Achabal.“Increased dependency on other states for rice signifies a change in trade dynamics. While importing rice may meet immediate consumption needs, it can lead to a trade deficit,” warned Dr Mohd Iqbal Rather, a faculty member of the Central University of Kashmir specialising in agricultural economics.With agricultural land diminishing, many are concerned about a potential loss of livelihood. "My earnings have significantly declined in recent years. Previously, I could earn around Rs 1 lakh per season [three months], but now it is barely 25,000 to 30,000," lamented Bashir Alie (50), a tractor owner for the last 30 years. "Our mill used to brim with paddy, and people often had to wait for days, and at times months, to process their rice. Poor paddy availability has significantly impacted me," shared Sarah, (70), a mill owner from Shangus.*Name changed to protect privacy Edited by Rekha PulinnoliCover Photo - Riyaz Ali Mir tending to his apple orchard (Photo - Aatif Ammad, 101Reporters)