Chhattisgarh polls: Watch out for Ajit Jogi's Janata Congress & Co

KN Kishore/Raipur

All calculations of three-time winner BJP and efforts of the opposition Congress to win the upcoming Chhattisgarh polls may come to a naught if the uncanny political alliance between the newly constituted Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi), the BSP and the CPI clicks with the state electorate.

Chhattisgarh, long considered a fort of the Congress, even in undivided Madhya Pradesh when the party used to win the maximum seats from the region, was created in the year 2000 and got its first chief minister in Ajit Pramod Jogi, a former bureaucrat-turned-politician then part of the Congress.

Three years of his tenure saw plenty of ups and downs, and a turn towards caste politics. As a result, in the Assembly polls of 2003, a public in turmoil brought the BJP to power, and the party has been ruling the state for 15 years now under Raman Singh.

Ajit Jogi, the ‘spoilsport’

Two years ago, Jogi and his son Amit broke away from the Congress over allegations of anti-party activities, and Jogi was quick to form a regional outfit with a national outlook, the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC).

Today, he is feared by both the BJP and Congress though both refuse to say it.

Congress leaders term his party as the ‘B-team’ of the BJP, while the BJP insists the JCC will not make any impact in the state polls. Yet, Jogi has played his cards tactfully, allying with Mayawati’s BSP and the CPI(M), with the coalition likely to mar the prospects of the two main parties.

For this election, the JCC and BSP have decided to go for a 55:35 seat-sharing ratio with JCC getting the chunk of seats and the CM’s chair. Their alliance is expected to capitalise on 15 seats – a number large enough to alter the course of government formation in Chhattisgarh.

Jogi also recently announced withdrawal from the election fray, saying he would fully concentrate on the alliance’s election campaign in 90 seats, after having challenged CM Raman Singh for a open contest in his home turf of Rajnandgaon. But, by Monday, there were speculations that Jogi may take a U-turn on his earlier stand after people from his traditional stronghold of Marwahi constituency approached him and requested his nomination. 

Going by the 2013 election math, the BSP has a considerable presence in 11 Assembly constituencies, with its voteshare ranging from 1 per cent to 30 per cent in these seats.

Currently, the party’s lone MLA is Keshav Chandra, who has been retained as a candidate from Jaijaipur. Earlier, in 2003, the BSP had won two seats in the Assembly - Kamda Jhole from Sarangarh (SC) and Lalsay Khunte from Malkharoda (SC) - and then again in 2008, it bagged the two seats of Akaltara and Pamgarh under Saurabh Singh and Dujram Bouddh, respectively. The BJP had won 50 seats that year while the Congress held 38. In 2013, Saurabh quit the BSP and later joined the Congress. Jhole was expelled from the BSP for anti-party activities.

Traditionally speaking, Jogi’s supporters have been seen gravitating towards the BJP, but with the JCC in action, all such votes are expected to shift back to his party, hitting at the BJP and Congress vote-bank, since both parties have had a vote difference of just below 1 per cent in the last elections.

Jogi’s family itself has quite some influence in the Marwahi and Kota seats of Chhattisgarh. On Congress tickets, Jogi’s son Amit won from Marwahi while Jogi’s wife Renu emerged victorious in Kota.

Amit is now with Jogi’s JCC but Renu has expressed her wish to go for a Congress ticket again.

Two sitting Congress MLAs, Siyaram Kaushik from Bilha and RK Rai from Gunderhi constituencies, are with Jogi now, but his daughter-in-law Richa Jogi is in the fray from Akaltara on a BSP ticket. JCC’s former candidate from Chandrapur Geetanjali Patel also joined the BSP a few days ago and has been retained on the party ticket.

Chhattisgarh’s poll history, however, shows that candidates have rarely won elections unless they have been mass leaders.

CPI, the add-on

On Sunday, Jogi announced a pre-poll alliance with the CPI for the state elections, with the Left party getting two seats to contest in south Bastar - Dantewada and Konta - where it already has considerable influence. CPI’s Manish Kunjam, former MLA, will fight against Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Congress’ sitting MLA Kawasi Lakhma from Konta.

CR Bakshi, central control commission secretary of the CPI, said the party would field candidates on other seats too, such as Jagdalpur, Kondagaon and Keshkal, and the alliance would support them. For these seats, candidates have already been declared, as well as for Dantewada. The Janjgir-Champa district is also being considered for the polls.

Likely to join the coalition is the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha, whose president Janak Lal Thakur confirmed that talks with CPI leaders had been held. He hoped a final decision on the alliance would be taken soon.

BSP supremo Mayawati plans to hold around six meetings in the state, with two on November 4 in Dongargarh and Bhilai, in which CPI’s star campaigner T Raja would also participate.

Amit Jogi expressed hope that the alliance headed by the regional JCC would develop a sense of belonging among people. His father has a following among Dalits, Muslims and Christians and, he said, the three parties are cadre-based, having a direct link with the poor and downtrodden, and understand local aspirations.

As his manifesto, Jogi Senior has already submitted an affidavit listing the 12 things he would do if he comes to power. He pointed out that no other political party has clarity on promises to voters as they have to look towards New Delhi for decision-making, whereas his JCC has no such compulsions.

BJP state general secretary Santosh Pandey admitted that the JCC-BSP- CPI alliance has an influence in around 11-12 Scheduled Caste-dominated seats mainly in the Janjgir-Champa region, and the Left-favoured three seats of Bastar region, including Bilaspur. “The alliance would be concentrating on these winnable seats. But it would not have much impact on the BJP,” he insisted.

Another entrant in the state political arena with much fanfare is the Aam Aadmi Party, which claims to be a favourable alternative to both the BJP and Congress. Its state in-charge Gopal Rai has already termed the BSP-JCC-CPI alliance a sinking boat. Clearly, it is expecting to repeat New Delhi in Chhattisgarh, but going by the party's performance in Karnataka assembly polls, even opening their account in the state will be an achievement.