A season of surprises

Under the fading glow of the victory for Telangana statehood, tumultuous political realignments were the flavour of the state’s first elections.

Hyderabad: On Friday, 67% of Telangana’s 2.8 crore voters across 119 constituencies turned out to chose their next government, for the first time as a separate state. In the 2014 elections of united Andhra Pradesh, the final poll percentage was slightly higher at 74.20%.

Across 32,574 polling stations, 4,000 of them classified as vulnerable, the fate of 1,821 candidates were being decided on. Over 50,000 security personnel and 1.50 lakh polling personnel had been deployed across the state, including in the 13 Maoist-affected constituencies where polling ended an hour earlier at 4.00 pm. Around 56% voter turnout had been registered in these 13 seats alone.

Back in September, no one would have guessed that Telangana would be joining Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh that were going to polls towards the end of the year. It is speculated that, in dissolving the assembly six months early, Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao wanted to seek a fresh mandate unfettered by divisive issues of 2019. At that time, it was considered somewhat of a masterstroke. He could fight Telangana elections independently of the general elections and, if he could fortify Telangana Rashtra Samithi’s popularity on the back of the many welfare schemes announced during his term, he could even get himself a better seat in Delhi’s power circle, whichever way it sways in 2019.

Advantage lost

But as Telangana prepared for its first elections, it became apparent the highs of 2014 that brought KCR to power with a clear majority of 63 (which over the course of four years and several defections was bolstered to 90) was on the wane. Several non-political leaders of the Telangana movement, who had worked with KCR for several years for the dream of a separate Telangana, were now openly antagonistic towards him. They claim KCR had shut out civil society organisations from the decision-making process and was running the party, and state, like an autocrat. His dissenters included popular balladeers and social activists like Vimalakka and Gaddar. In fact, Gaddar, a known Maoist-sympathiser who had never voted before had toyed with the idea of contesting against KCR in his constituency of Gajwel. Though eventually he didn’t, he met Rahul Gandhi and endorsed Congress and the Prajakutami.

The Prajakutami, or the People’s Front, was probably the biggest upheaval that KCR might not have anticipated on. The four-way alliance between the Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee, Telugu Desam Party, Communist Party of India and the newly-minted Telangana Jana Samithi, rose to be a formidable challenge. Especially, the TJS, under M Kodandaram, the Chairman on the Telangana Joint Action Committee, was in many ways KCR’s counterpart in the opposition, one who could lay equal claim to struggle for Telangana (though Congress didn't miss opportunities to point out that the Telangana Act was signed under the UPA rule). Considering the Congress and TDP together accounted for over 44% of the vote share in 2014, the Prajakutami presented a realistic option for those who were not too keen to re-elect KCR. But much of the momentum that the coalition had gathered early on was lost towards the end due to protracted talks on seat-sharing. Ultimately with none of the parties in the mood for compromise, a few alliance candidates had to settle for a “friendly constest” between the partners in constituencies like Khanapur, Dubbaka, Asifabad and Warangal (East).

Exit polls project TRS win

While the Bharatiya Janata Party and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen are relatively small players in the state – with 5 and 7 seats respectively in 2014 – they are strong where it matters, in Hyderabad. BJP was unwilling to take the state for granted and made some big gestures before the elections like organising the pre-2019 Bhartiya Janata Yuva Morcha conference in Hyderabad that brought together hundreds of its youth leaders from across the country. Together, Amit Shah and Narendra Modi covered 22,000 km within the state and addressed 13 rallies in the course of the campaign. And both parties contributed in equal measure to the acrimonious, high-decibel campaign, with TRS ministers like Harish Rao’s dramatically foreshadowing nothing less than doom for Telangana if TDP-Congress came to power.

The campaign has shown that while the buck stops with KCR with many voters, a few local leaders remain strong. Congress’ Revanth Reddy, popular leader and venerable MLA from Kodangal irrespective of his party affiliation, was taken into preventive custody at 3 am on December 3 ahead of KCR’s rally there because he had called for its boycott. That was not the first time TRS was accused for taking advantage of government machinery; last week the Chief Electoral Officer’s office had asked the Telangana Secretariat to explain why PROs working with caretaker ministers were found to be involved in posting party programmes in social media and various Whatsapp groups. And on polling day Friday, there were allegations that TRS workers, in the guise of election agents, were turning away voters who weren’t TRS supporters.

As the EC ban on exit polls, which had been in effect from 7 am on November 12 to 5.30 pm on December 7, came to an end on Friday, all projections showed TRS ahead in the race, with differing margins. According to Times Now-CNX exit poll survey, the ruling TRS is expected to bag 66 seats, Congress 37, BJP seven and others nine. Republic Jan Ki Baat survey said the TRS may bag 50 to 65 seats while Congress and its allies are set to bag 38 to 52 seats and both MIM and BJP to draw a blank in the elections. News 18 CNN survey predicted 50 to 65 seats for the TRS, 38 to 52 seats for Congress, four to seven seats for BJP and eight to 14 seats for others. The India Today-Axis exit polls give TRS a resounding 79-91 seats, Congress 21 to 33, BJP one to three and MIM four to seven. Industrialist and former Congress MP Lagadapati Rajpgopal released the results of his survey that had created a flutter earlier this week in which he predicts 65 +/- 10 for Congress, 35 +/- 10 for TRS, 7 +/- 2 for BJP, 7 +/- 2 for independents, 7+/- 2 for TDP, 6-7 for MIM and 1 for BLF.